China's long-term economic momentum will not keep up

Original title: Chinese long-term economic good momentum unstoppable in September 21st, following the international credit rating agency Moodie will Chinese sovereign credit rating downgraded from Aa3 A1, another international credit rating agency Standard & Poor Chinese sovereign credit rating from AA- down to A, stable outlook. This raises some concerns, but the market is not responding very much. In the face of rating fine-tuning, China maintains a common sense and a calm response. China's long-term economic momentum will not keep up. However, there are some reasons, still have to talk about. Obviously, the downgrade was far fetched. The official explanation by the S & P is mainly to emphasize that credit growth has increased China's economic and financial risks in terms of lowering the outlook for China's sovereign rating outlook". As we all know, in 2017, China's rapid growth of credit, China is vigorously promoting the "financial deleveraging" results, but also "off the virtual to reality" reflects, precisely reflects the risk of China's financial system is decreasing. Even taking into account the previous sampp claim that "government debt, capital outflows, reform stalled, it is not difficult to find, the reason for the downgrade outlook, is pushing the supply side structural reform Chinese, the apparent lack of convincing. Look at China's economy, to see the short term, but also to see long-term. China's economy is shifting period, from "weight" to "heavy" change, in the short term there will inevitably be ups and downs and peaks, which does not affect the long-term economic trend for the better. Chinese are good at finding problems of insight, have the courage to correct the problem resolve, reform consensus strategy more central and across the country, some short-term fluctuations dialectically, it is the good long-term assembly". Look, the longitudinal comparison of the long term, Chinese still remain the leading global and long-term economic growth, relatively healthy fiscal deficit, abundant reserves, reasonable interest rates and open and inclusive society. At the same time, China's monetary policy, fiscal policy and industrial policy still have full scope to display, and the reform momentum is very strong. Standard & Poor's cut its sovereign rating only on a short-term basis in China's economy, either without foresight or with guilt. The impact of lowering sovereign ratings is limited. The most immediate effect is the possibility of raising the cost of overseas financing by the government and enterprises. Observational data will be found to have little effect. First of all, by the end of 2016 China full caliber foreign debt amounted to 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan, accounting for the proportion of China total debt of only 5.4%, accounting for 13% of GDP, China overall foreign debt level is relatively low in the world, coupled with the strong international payments surplus, government financing needs of weak Chinese. Secondly, as of the end of 6 trillion and 500 billion, China's external financial assets of $2016, foreign financial liabilities of $4 trillion and 700 billion, in the financial net foreign earnings of 1 trillion and 800 billion U. S. dollars, the impact of lowering the rating is limited. Third, as of August 2017, China's foreign exchange reserves rose for the 7 consecutive month, the size of foreign reserves back to the top 3 trillion U.S. dollars, is still the world's largest foreign exchange reserves countries, adequate balance of payments guarantee. Double standard nanzu Chinese momentum. For a long time, western rating agencies holding credit counseling market monopoly, through a praise of the western countries and emerging economies a derogatory, man-made "financing scissors", will direct the flow of resources in western developed countries. For the rating agencies to cook highfalutin reasons, wielding a "rating stick" "sing empty China" boring story, Chinese also flattering. In fact, since China's reform and opening up, many Western politicians, scholars, media and transnational corporation executives issued a "sing empty China" speech can be described as a lot, but not once they say. Of course, the western rating also provides an angle and a yardstick for measuring risks, so that we can become more aware of the hardships on the road ahead. There is a supervision and reference, we will do more steadily. Whether China's economy is good or not is not up to the rating agencies. China don't believe anything else, only believe in hard work and prosperous". (the author is Zhang Chao, economist at the Capital Development Bureau of the National Development Bank), people's Daily Overseas Edition (2017, 09, 23)